The late and former great NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle would love what he is seeing in the AFC standings as there are 11 teams with records that are over .500 and in bona fide playoff contention. This situation also makes for a serious NFL betting challenge for handicappers working to find an edge.
A great example of the up and down nature of the NFL is the Kansas City Chiefs as they lost their first 3 games in horrific fashion only to come right back and win their next four to gain a share of the lead in the AFC West with the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers.
Speaking of surprises how about the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills who have emerged from near forgotten status and as a go against NFL betting commodity. Buffalo is 5-2 straight up and 4-2-1 against the spread and has the street cred of an upset win over division rival and the perennial power of the AFC East in the New England Patriots.
Speaking of New England, their defense has become a surprise but for all of the wrong reasons as the Patriots rank dead last in the NFL for total defense. This has put more of a burden on QB Tom Brady and although the Pats are 5-2 they are looking shaky after being dominated in a loss at Pittsburgh last week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are not a surprise in leading the AFC North but the Cincinnati Bengals are with rookie QB Andy Dalton from TCU. The Bengals were written off for dead and a NFL betting longshot with the summer Super Bowl futures odds but that is no longer the case as their defense has combined with Dalton to forge a 5-2 record with 6 payouts in those 7 games.
San Diego is yet another negative surprise with a record of 4-3 straight up and 2-5 against the spread as the incompetence of head coach Norv Turner is being exposed for all to see once again. The Chargers botched a sure win on Monday Night Football at Kansas City and their sloppy undisciplined play is a direct reflection of Turner, who inherited a potential powerhouse in 2007 and is yet to bring it to life.
The New York Jets are also facing concerns after the Super bluster of head coach Rex Ryan as they are 4-3 but ranking 28th for rushing offense. That is a bad combination with the inconsistent QB Mark Sanchez and a defense that has slipped to 25th against the run.
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Super Bowl Predictions
Thursday, February 3, 2011
On paper, you couldn't really ask for a better Super Bowl.
We have star power, storied franchises, and rabid fan bases. Both teams are very good, and they are very complete teams.
The Packers are led by Aaron Rodgers, who is one of the most talented QBs in the NFL. He has a strong, accurate arm, and is sneakily one of the most athletic QBs in the League. They have a strong defense led by Clay Matthews, one of the best pass rushers out there. He is quick, fast, and has an attitude about him, leading their defense.
The Steelers are led by Ben Roethlisberger, one of the best playoff QBs you will find. He doesn't put up gaudy numbers, but he has a knack for making big plays when they are needed the most. He is a Super Bowl veteran and will be looking to add another to his trophy case. He is helped defensive by a strong LB corps, with James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, two hard-hitters and athletic defenenders.
In the end, I think Roethlisberger will make one more play than Rodgers. I like Mike Tomlin and the Steelers to be Super Bowl champions once again.
Steelers 27, Packers 24
We have star power, storied franchises, and rabid fan bases. Both teams are very good, and they are very complete teams.
The Packers are led by Aaron Rodgers, who is one of the most talented QBs in the NFL. He has a strong, accurate arm, and is sneakily one of the most athletic QBs in the League. They have a strong defense led by Clay Matthews, one of the best pass rushers out there. He is quick, fast, and has an attitude about him, leading their defense.
The Steelers are led by Ben Roethlisberger, one of the best playoff QBs you will find. He doesn't put up gaudy numbers, but he has a knack for making big plays when they are needed the most. He is a Super Bowl veteran and will be looking to add another to his trophy case. He is helped defensive by a strong LB corps, with James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, two hard-hitters and athletic defenenders.
In the end, I think Roethlisberger will make one more play than Rodgers. I like Mike Tomlin and the Steelers to be Super Bowl champions once again.
Steelers 27, Packers 24
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Pittsburgh (-3) over Miami
I think Pittsburgh is the best team in the NFL, especially with Ben Roethlisberger back, making their offense balanced again. Miami has some nice wins this season, but I'm not sure Chad Henne is going to be very effective against this defense. I like Pittsburgh to win a low-scoring game in Miami, with Roethlisberger making the difference.
Cincinnati (+3.5) over Atlanta
Atlanta looked like it might have a chance to be the class of the NFC, and then they got beat easily by Philly. Cincy started off well before tailing off, but they know they need a win to try and salvage their season. Look for a good gameplan from Mike Zimmer, and just enough plays out of the Cincy offense to pull off an upset.
St. Louis (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
After last week's win over the Chargers, I believe in the Rams in the NFC West. The defensive front is getting after people just like Spagnulo's Giants' teams used to do. The offense, thanks to Sam Bradford, is showing more signs of life than they have in years. Something is brewing in St. Louis, and I think it will be enough to beat the Bucs.
San Francisco (-3) over Carolina
2-5 an the Niners will start to believe. The musical chairs of Carolina quarterback goes back to Matt Moore. Won't make a difference for this punchless offense, as teams will just load the box. Carolina's receivers aren't good enough to beat anyone.
Washington (+3) over Chicago
The Bears correction continues, as the Redskins are showing signs of being solid. Donovan McNabb is playing better than Jay Cutler right now, which is why I will take the Skins. The Bears need to get Matt Forte the ball in the running game, because teams will be going after Cutler with the way the offensive line has performed this season.
New Orleans (-13.5) over Cleveland
The Saints appear to have some of their mojo back, particularly if they can continue a strong rushing attack. Colt McCoy looked surprisingly good in his first game starting in his career, but there is not enough firepower in Cleveland to compete with the Saints.
Buffalo (+13) over Baltimore
Baltimore should win the game easily, but I think the Bills will be able to make the final score respectable. Fred Jackson should get more touches after the trade of Marshawn Lynch, and that could be a good thing. It will also be interesting to see if they have anything new for CJ Spiller. Ryan Fitzgerald is not anyone's answer to a long-term solution at QB, but he is serviceable, which is more than you could say about Trent Edwards.
Philadelphia (+2.5) over Tennessee
I believe in Kevin Kolb. He looked great against Atlanta, and he appears to have the timing of the offense down. The only thing that concerns me is that Desean Jackson will be out of the game, which is a big blow to the offense. Still, I have more faith in Philly's run game than Tennessee's pass game, which is why I will take the Eagles here.
Seattle (-5.5) over Arizona
Nice win by Seattle last week, showing that they could win a road game, which was in question for me before that game. At home, I think they will overwhelm Arizona, who is better with Max Hall than they were with Derek Anderson (or Matt Leinart), but not good enough to be a serious contender.
Denver (-7) over Oakland
The Broncos have played well, just are struggling to get over the hump. The Raiders, meanwhile, looked awful last week, and Kyle Boller could be getting the start this week. I think Denver's offense is a lot more explosive than the Raiders, even with the lack of a running game.
New England (+3) over San Diego
New England looks like the Patriots of old... a bunch of scrappy guys just going out there and playing. I can't put my finger on what is different after essentially trading Randy Moss for Deion Branch, but SOMETHING is. And it's clear that as great as Moss is, things were not working out this season. The Patriots look like a force the rest of the way to me.
Minnesota (+3) over Green Bay
The game that is full of storylines. Favre comes back to Lambeau again, and this time the Packers are reeling. The Packers know that if they lose this game, the Vikings have all of the momentum in the division. Still, I like the Vikings D (which has quietly been excellent) to get after Aaron Rodgers like they did last year, and for Favre to hit Moss on a deep ball that will make the difference.
Dallas (-3) over New York
The NFC East seems to always have these types of games... one team is struggling, the other team is playing well... but talent-wise, they are close to even, and there is one team that really needs the game more than the other team. Dallas will be in desperation mode. At home in Big D, I'll take Dallas to prolong the death of their season for another week.
I think Pittsburgh is the best team in the NFL, especially with Ben Roethlisberger back, making their offense balanced again. Miami has some nice wins this season, but I'm not sure Chad Henne is going to be very effective against this defense. I like Pittsburgh to win a low-scoring game in Miami, with Roethlisberger making the difference.
Cincinnati (+3.5) over Atlanta
Atlanta looked like it might have a chance to be the class of the NFC, and then they got beat easily by Philly. Cincy started off well before tailing off, but they know they need a win to try and salvage their season. Look for a good gameplan from Mike Zimmer, and just enough plays out of the Cincy offense to pull off an upset.
St. Louis (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
After last week's win over the Chargers, I believe in the Rams in the NFC West. The defensive front is getting after people just like Spagnulo's Giants' teams used to do. The offense, thanks to Sam Bradford, is showing more signs of life than they have in years. Something is brewing in St. Louis, and I think it will be enough to beat the Bucs.
San Francisco (-3) over Carolina
2-5 an the Niners will start to believe. The musical chairs of Carolina quarterback goes back to Matt Moore. Won't make a difference for this punchless offense, as teams will just load the box. Carolina's receivers aren't good enough to beat anyone.
Washington (+3) over Chicago
The Bears correction continues, as the Redskins are showing signs of being solid. Donovan McNabb is playing better than Jay Cutler right now, which is why I will take the Skins. The Bears need to get Matt Forte the ball in the running game, because teams will be going after Cutler with the way the offensive line has performed this season.
New Orleans (-13.5) over Cleveland
The Saints appear to have some of their mojo back, particularly if they can continue a strong rushing attack. Colt McCoy looked surprisingly good in his first game starting in his career, but there is not enough firepower in Cleveland to compete with the Saints.
Buffalo (+13) over Baltimore
Baltimore should win the game easily, but I think the Bills will be able to make the final score respectable. Fred Jackson should get more touches after the trade of Marshawn Lynch, and that could be a good thing. It will also be interesting to see if they have anything new for CJ Spiller. Ryan Fitzgerald is not anyone's answer to a long-term solution at QB, but he is serviceable, which is more than you could say about Trent Edwards.
Philadelphia (+2.5) over Tennessee
I believe in Kevin Kolb. He looked great against Atlanta, and he appears to have the timing of the offense down. The only thing that concerns me is that Desean Jackson will be out of the game, which is a big blow to the offense. Still, I have more faith in Philly's run game than Tennessee's pass game, which is why I will take the Eagles here.
Seattle (-5.5) over Arizona
Nice win by Seattle last week, showing that they could win a road game, which was in question for me before that game. At home, I think they will overwhelm Arizona, who is better with Max Hall than they were with Derek Anderson (or Matt Leinart), but not good enough to be a serious contender.
Denver (-7) over Oakland
The Broncos have played well, just are struggling to get over the hump. The Raiders, meanwhile, looked awful last week, and Kyle Boller could be getting the start this week. I think Denver's offense is a lot more explosive than the Raiders, even with the lack of a running game.
New England (+3) over San Diego
New England looks like the Patriots of old... a bunch of scrappy guys just going out there and playing. I can't put my finger on what is different after essentially trading Randy Moss for Deion Branch, but SOMETHING is. And it's clear that as great as Moss is, things were not working out this season. The Patriots look like a force the rest of the way to me.
Minnesota (+3) over Green Bay
The game that is full of storylines. Favre comes back to Lambeau again, and this time the Packers are reeling. The Packers know that if they lose this game, the Vikings have all of the momentum in the division. Still, I like the Vikings D (which has quietly been excellent) to get after Aaron Rodgers like they did last year, and for Favre to hit Moss on a deep ball that will make the difference.
Dallas (-3) over New York
The NFC East seems to always have these types of games... one team is struggling, the other team is playing well... but talent-wise, they are close to even, and there is one team that really needs the game more than the other team. Dallas will be in desperation mode. At home in Big D, I'll take Dallas to prolong the death of their season for another week.
Minnesota Vikings Draft Analysis
Friday, June 4, 2010
The Minnesota Vikings are coming off of a disappointing end to the 2010 season. Despite a great record and a high-powered offense, they came up just short in the NFC Championship game, losing to the New Orleans Saints in OT. They played well enough to win, but just made a few crucial mistakes that caused them to lose.
Heading into the offseason, there were a few different holes that they needed to address. One was depth at CB, especially with Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield going through injury problems. Another was depth at RB, as Chester Taylor was not resigned, and instead went to the Chicago Bears. Last, they needed to look at the offensive line, and get more depth to challenge the starters for playing time.
They traded down out of the first round, but then were able to add Chris Cook out of Virginia to try to beef up the secondary. He projects to be a cornerback, but he can likely also play a little of bit of safety if they need him to. They hope he will challenge for a nickel role, and has the size to eventually be a starting cornerback in the NFL. They should be able to give him time to develop, and perhaps contribute on special teams.
Their second round pick was much more well known and accomplished in college, and that was Toby Gerhart, a RB out of Stanford. He is very versatile, and should be a nice complement to Adrian Peterson, as they hope that he can fill the void left by Chester Taylor. They would like him to be a solid pass catcher out of the backfield, good blocker on third down, and give Peterson the occasional rest by getting some carries. He seems to know his role well, and looks like he will be a nice extra piece of the offense for the Vikings.
Their next pick was Everson Griffen, a DE from USC. This was not a position of need, but he fell a lot farther than expected, and so the Vikings simply saw him as the best player available, and thought he would provide nice value for them, The rest of their draft was not filled with many big names, but simply guys they hope can compete for roster spots at WR, OL, and LB. It will be interesting to see if any of them stick. However, this draft will be measured by how well Toby Gerhart and Chris Cook play for the Vikings.
Heading into the offseason, there were a few different holes that they needed to address. One was depth at CB, especially with Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield going through injury problems. Another was depth at RB, as Chester Taylor was not resigned, and instead went to the Chicago Bears. Last, they needed to look at the offensive line, and get more depth to challenge the starters for playing time.
They traded down out of the first round, but then were able to add Chris Cook out of Virginia to try to beef up the secondary. He projects to be a cornerback, but he can likely also play a little of bit of safety if they need him to. They hope he will challenge for a nickel role, and has the size to eventually be a starting cornerback in the NFL. They should be able to give him time to develop, and perhaps contribute on special teams.
Their second round pick was much more well known and accomplished in college, and that was Toby Gerhart, a RB out of Stanford. He is very versatile, and should be a nice complement to Adrian Peterson, as they hope that he can fill the void left by Chester Taylor. They would like him to be a solid pass catcher out of the backfield, good blocker on third down, and give Peterson the occasional rest by getting some carries. He seems to know his role well, and looks like he will be a nice extra piece of the offense for the Vikings.
Their next pick was Everson Griffen, a DE from USC. This was not a position of need, but he fell a lot farther than expected, and so the Vikings simply saw him as the best player available, and thought he would provide nice value for them, The rest of their draft was not filled with many big names, but simply guys they hope can compete for roster spots at WR, OL, and LB. It will be interesting to see if any of them stick. However, this draft will be measured by how well Toby Gerhart and Chris Cook play for the Vikings.
Will the Saints and Colts go undefeated?
Thursday, December 17, 2009
With the Indianapolis Colts thrilling 35-31 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night, they now sit at 14-0, while the New Orleans Saints are 13-0. If you have been following things at all, you likely know that this is the latest that two teams have both been undefeated this late in the season.
So, of course, the question must be asked... will they both go undefeated, and eventually meet in the Super Bowl? Who has the better shot?
As of now, you have to say the Colts have the better shot, simply because they are one game further along. As the Saints showed by getting a [pretty lucky] close win against the Redskins, anyone can beat anyone in this League, especially because everyone will be giving the Colts and Saints their best shot. Every team wants to be the one that beats the previously undefeated team, which puts a lot of pressure on the Colts and Saints.
The Colts have been particularly adept as escaping with wins this year, with a bevy of come-from-behind wins in the 4th quarter. 7 of their wins have been by 4 points or less, which is really remarkable to think about. They finish with a home game against the Jets and a road game against the Bills. One thing to thing about is their tendency to rest their starters at the end of the year. As they already have clinched home field throughout the playoffs, there is a very good chance that they will pull some of their starters over the next two games, which will obviously put them at a serious disadvantage.
The Saints are just 3 games away from an undefeated regular season, and they have been by comparison the more dominant team. They have the best offense in football, and there defense has shown the tendency to be opportunistic. They play at home against Dallas, at home against the Bucs, and then finish at Carolina. If they can get by this game against a Dallas team desperate for a win, they should have smooth sailing to an undefeated regular season.
I believe the Saints will finish the regular season undefeated, and the Colts will not, because I think they will begin to rest a lot of their starters. However, in the playoffs, I like the Saints to go down to the Vikings, giving the 1972 Dolphins another deep breath and another year of breaking out the champagne.
While you're watching these two teams play, you should take a look at playing some Football Bingo, a fun game to play while you are watching the action on the field!
So, of course, the question must be asked... will they both go undefeated, and eventually meet in the Super Bowl? Who has the better shot?
As of now, you have to say the Colts have the better shot, simply because they are one game further along. As the Saints showed by getting a [pretty lucky] close win against the Redskins, anyone can beat anyone in this League, especially because everyone will be giving the Colts and Saints their best shot. Every team wants to be the one that beats the previously undefeated team, which puts a lot of pressure on the Colts and Saints.
The Colts have been particularly adept as escaping with wins this year, with a bevy of come-from-behind wins in the 4th quarter. 7 of their wins have been by 4 points or less, which is really remarkable to think about. They finish with a home game against the Jets and a road game against the Bills. One thing to thing about is their tendency to rest their starters at the end of the year. As they already have clinched home field throughout the playoffs, there is a very good chance that they will pull some of their starters over the next two games, which will obviously put them at a serious disadvantage.
The Saints are just 3 games away from an undefeated regular season, and they have been by comparison the more dominant team. They have the best offense in football, and there defense has shown the tendency to be opportunistic. They play at home against Dallas, at home against the Bucs, and then finish at Carolina. If they can get by this game against a Dallas team desperate for a win, they should have smooth sailing to an undefeated regular season.
I believe the Saints will finish the regular season undefeated, and the Colts will not, because I think they will begin to rest a lot of their starters. However, in the playoffs, I like the Saints to go down to the Vikings, giving the 1972 Dolphins another deep breath and another year of breaking out the champagne.
While you're watching these two teams play, you should take a look at playing some Football Bingo, a fun game to play while you are watching the action on the field!
NFL Picks Against the Spread 2009: Week 3
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Back for the always challenging picking against the spread! When I used to do these in the past, my goal was always .500... so I will stick with that as a goal. Let's just say there is a reason I don't gamble! But picking against the spread is more fun and challenging than picking straight up.
I just got my odds from here, taking the most common line at the time if there are any discrepancies between all of them.
Titans (+3) over Jets
Perhaps no team has been more impressive over 2 weeks than the Jets (#5 in my power rankings), but I think this will be a case of one team desperately needing a win, and the other wanting a win. The Titans, at 0-2, need a win. They have playoff and Super Bowl aspirations, and they are too good to fall to 0-3 and let them die.
Packers (-6.5) over Rams
The Rams are averaging 3.5 PPG over the first two weeks. Nope, that is not a misprint.
Lions (+6.5) over Redskins
A lot of people are saying this is the week the streak ends (including Peter King, though he said that last week too)... I'm not sold, but I think it will be an ugly game. I like the Redskins to win a game that feels like a loss... sorta like last week. Something like 16-13 with a late FG.
Chiefs (+8.5) over Eagles
Without Donovan McNabb, I like the Eagles to struggle for this victory. The defense got shredded last week by the Saints. And while no one will mistake this Chiefs offense for the Saints offense, I think Todd Haley will be able to exploit some things to keep the game at least close.
Patriots (-4) over Falcons
Another desperation game... not that the Patriots are done if they fall to 1-2, but they just need to get some of their mojo back. This would be a good place to start by beating a good Falcons team. Tony Gonzalez has added another dimension to the Falcons offense. New England needs to get better pressure on the QB or else Matt Ryan will pick them apart. I like Bill Belicheck to get it done.
Texans (-3.5) over Jaguars
Jack Del Rio, start updating your resume.
Vikings (-6.5) over 49ers
I know Frank Gore is real good, and the Niners have looked solid going 2-0. But they beat a sleepwalking Cardinals team and a Seahawks team that didn't have Matt Hasselbeck for much of the game. Let's not get too crazy yet. The Vikings need to start getting off to quicker starts, but I still like them by two touchdowns.
Ravens (-13) over Browns
Yep, the Ravens offense is pretty stinkin' good this year too. The Browns lost to Denver by 21 last week... I like the Ravens to do the same thing to them.
Giants (-6.5) over Bucs
The Bucs defenders keep dropping, and the passing game can't get much consistency. Cadillac is a great story, but the Bucs are just not a good football team right now. Meanwhile, the Giants passing game is finding its groove, which should only open things up more for the running game.
Saints (-6) over Bills
Until the Saints prove me wrong, I will assume nobody can stop them. Buffalo has been fairly impressive this year and they look like they could challenge for a playoff spot if things break right. But they still aren't getting TO very involved, and you have to think he won't like that for too much longer. The Saints defense has just been good enough to think the Saints could be contenders this year, and I like that trend to continue against Buffalo.
Bears (-2) over Seahawks
If Matt Hasselbeck plays, he won't be anywhere near 100%. That does not bode well for a very mediocre Seahawks team. Plus, the defense didn't look so good either giving up TD runs of 79 and 80 yards against Frank Gore. Look for Forte to finally get on track running the football this week.
Bengals (+4) over Steelers
I'm not sure the Bengals have enough to upset Pittsburgh, but I think they keep it real close. Pittsburgh has not looked very dominant through 2 games, while the Bengals looked surprisingly solid winning at Lambeau last week. Look for them to try to get Cedric Benson involved again, which will set them up to make just enough plays in the passing game to keep this a tight ballgame.
Dolphins (+6) over Chargers
I am guessing the Dolphins will try a similar strategy that they tried against the Colts... with about the same result.
Raiders (+1.5) over Broncos
Not that JaMarcus Russell and his 35% completion rate (seriously... 35%... no, seriously) is that impressive, I think the Raiders are a better overall team than the Broncos. With the game being played at Oakland, I like them to take a squeaker against their bitter rivals from Denver.
Colts (+2.5) over Cardinals
I know Arizona is at home and played well last week... but the Cardinals are favored? I was a bit surprised, I must admit. I simply think the Colts are a much better team than the Cardinals. They got gouged in the running game last week against Miami, but Arizona is not exactly a team that is going to exploit that weakness.
Panthers (+8.5) over Cowboys
For some reason, the Panthers just bore me. I don't know what it is about them, but I am just not interested at all in them. I think something about Jake Delhomme is just so unenticing to me, that even with the dynamic running backs they have (not to mention Steve Smith), I just don't care to ever see them play. What that has to do with me picking them to cover, I don't know.
What are your thoughts? Which picks do you disagree with?
I just got my odds from here, taking the most common line at the time if there are any discrepancies between all of them.
Titans (+3) over Jets
Perhaps no team has been more impressive over 2 weeks than the Jets (#5 in my power rankings), but I think this will be a case of one team desperately needing a win, and the other wanting a win. The Titans, at 0-2, need a win. They have playoff and Super Bowl aspirations, and they are too good to fall to 0-3 and let them die.
Packers (-6.5) over Rams
The Rams are averaging 3.5 PPG over the first two weeks. Nope, that is not a misprint.
Lions (+6.5) over Redskins
A lot of people are saying this is the week the streak ends (including Peter King, though he said that last week too)... I'm not sold, but I think it will be an ugly game. I like the Redskins to win a game that feels like a loss... sorta like last week. Something like 16-13 with a late FG.
Chiefs (+8.5) over Eagles
Without Donovan McNabb, I like the Eagles to struggle for this victory. The defense got shredded last week by the Saints. And while no one will mistake this Chiefs offense for the Saints offense, I think Todd Haley will be able to exploit some things to keep the game at least close.
Patriots (-4) over Falcons
Another desperation game... not that the Patriots are done if they fall to 1-2, but they just need to get some of their mojo back. This would be a good place to start by beating a good Falcons team. Tony Gonzalez has added another dimension to the Falcons offense. New England needs to get better pressure on the QB or else Matt Ryan will pick them apart. I like Bill Belicheck to get it done.
Texans (-3.5) over Jaguars
Jack Del Rio, start updating your resume.
Vikings (-6.5) over 49ers
I know Frank Gore is real good, and the Niners have looked solid going 2-0. But they beat a sleepwalking Cardinals team and a Seahawks team that didn't have Matt Hasselbeck for much of the game. Let's not get too crazy yet. The Vikings need to start getting off to quicker starts, but I still like them by two touchdowns.
Ravens (-13) over Browns
Yep, the Ravens offense is pretty stinkin' good this year too. The Browns lost to Denver by 21 last week... I like the Ravens to do the same thing to them.
Giants (-6.5) over Bucs
The Bucs defenders keep dropping, and the passing game can't get much consistency. Cadillac is a great story, but the Bucs are just not a good football team right now. Meanwhile, the Giants passing game is finding its groove, which should only open things up more for the running game.
Saints (-6) over Bills
Until the Saints prove me wrong, I will assume nobody can stop them. Buffalo has been fairly impressive this year and they look like they could challenge for a playoff spot if things break right. But they still aren't getting TO very involved, and you have to think he won't like that for too much longer. The Saints defense has just been good enough to think the Saints could be contenders this year, and I like that trend to continue against Buffalo.
Bears (-2) over Seahawks
If Matt Hasselbeck plays, he won't be anywhere near 100%. That does not bode well for a very mediocre Seahawks team. Plus, the defense didn't look so good either giving up TD runs of 79 and 80 yards against Frank Gore. Look for Forte to finally get on track running the football this week.
Bengals (+4) over Steelers
I'm not sure the Bengals have enough to upset Pittsburgh, but I think they keep it real close. Pittsburgh has not looked very dominant through 2 games, while the Bengals looked surprisingly solid winning at Lambeau last week. Look for them to try to get Cedric Benson involved again, which will set them up to make just enough plays in the passing game to keep this a tight ballgame.
Dolphins (+6) over Chargers
I am guessing the Dolphins will try a similar strategy that they tried against the Colts... with about the same result.
Raiders (+1.5) over Broncos
Not that JaMarcus Russell and his 35% completion rate (seriously... 35%... no, seriously) is that impressive, I think the Raiders are a better overall team than the Broncos. With the game being played at Oakland, I like them to take a squeaker against their bitter rivals from Denver.
Colts (+2.5) over Cardinals
I know Arizona is at home and played well last week... but the Cardinals are favored? I was a bit surprised, I must admit. I simply think the Colts are a much better team than the Cardinals. They got gouged in the running game last week against Miami, but Arizona is not exactly a team that is going to exploit that weakness.
Panthers (+8.5) over Cowboys
For some reason, the Panthers just bore me. I don't know what it is about them, but I am just not interested at all in them. I think something about Jake Delhomme is just so unenticing to me, that even with the dynamic running backs they have (not to mention Steve Smith), I just don't care to ever see them play. What that has to do with me picking them to cover, I don't know.
What are your thoughts? Which picks do you disagree with?
NFL Power Rankings Week 3
Monday, September 21, 2009
With 2 weeks of the NFL season under our belt (after the Monday night game), it is time to take a look at some NFL power rankings. Here are my top 10 in the NFL after 2 weeks of play.
1. Baltimore Ravens
The offense has finally caught up (and perhaps even surpassed) the defense. Joe Flacco looks like a future star in the NFL (he is very close already), and their trio of running backs is making the running game very dangerous. Plus, they still have Ray Lewis leading the defense, and he is still making huge plays.
2. New York Giants
After an impressive victory over the Dallas Cowboys in the first game of their new stadium, the Giants passing game doesn't look like it's missed a beat without Plaxico Burress. The D-Line is still as deep and talented as any in the NFL, and if Eli Manning can play like he did in week 2 the offense will be one of the most balanced in the NFL.
3. New Orleans Saints
As we knew heading into the season, the offense is extremely explosive. Drew Brees nearly broke the single season passing record last season, and he might have another crack at it this year. he already has 9 TD passes through 2 games. The Saints are averaging a whopping 46.5 PPG, and obliterated a pretty good Eagles defense on Sunday. If the Saints D can hold u, they could be Super Bowl contenders.
4. Minnesota Vikings
They have looked good but not great through 2 games. They've struggled out of the gate against both Cleveland and Detroit, trailing by three at halftime each game. But neither was in doubt as the second half closed. Adrian Peterson is looking like an all-time great RB with runs like this, and the defense is playing attacking football.
5. New York Jets
The Jets have been one of the surprise teams of the NFL, going 2-0 while opening up against potential playoff teams in Houston and New England. If you were into NFL betting you probably could have made a lot of money betting that through 2 games the Jets would be allowing 8.0 PPG and no defensive touchdowns allowed (the only TD scored against them was on special teams. Matt Sanchez looks to be carrying on the recent trend of successful, young NFL quarterbacks.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jeff Reed? After making the game-winner in OT the week before, he missed two 4th quarter FGs which could have potentially won the game for Pittsburgh in the Windy City. Instead, he missed wide left on both, and the Steelers lost to drop to 1-1. They have a lot of concerns about the running game and offensive line, but this defense is still pretty special, especially when Troy Polamalu gets back. Obviously we have not heard the last from the defending champions.
7. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts seem to be flying a little more under the radar than usual, which is a little strange. There are a little more question marks at receiver, but Peyton Manning is still the quarterback. If they can get the tandem of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown up and running effectively, the offense will again be one of the best in the NFL.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan has shown that there will be no sophomore slump, as he's establishing himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the game already. The Falcons are 2-0 and looking every bit the playoff team they were a season ago. The revamped defense is looking much improved, turning in good performances against Miami and Carolina, two teams that were very good a season ago.
9. New England Patriots
It is way too soon to panic for a franchise that employs both Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck, but something is not quite right for the Pats. They have no running game, Brady is throwing all day without a ton of success (100 throws in two games), the defense is not pressuring the QB, and they could very easily be 0-2 right now. At the very least, the AFC East will be more of a race than perhaps some people expected heading into the season.
10. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are one of 9 undefeated teams after week 2 (not sure a lot of sports betting was done for that!), which merits inclusion in the top 10, even though I'm not sure they're really better than teams like the Cowboys, Packers, or Bears. At the very least, Frank Gore showed that Adrian Peterson will at least have a challenger in the rushing title race. The 49ers and Vikings play in Week 3's only matchup of undefeated teams.
What are your thoughts? What order would you change?
1. Baltimore Ravens
The offense has finally caught up (and perhaps even surpassed) the defense. Joe Flacco looks like a future star in the NFL (he is very close already), and their trio of running backs is making the running game very dangerous. Plus, they still have Ray Lewis leading the defense, and he is still making huge plays.
2. New York Giants
After an impressive victory over the Dallas Cowboys in the first game of their new stadium, the Giants passing game doesn't look like it's missed a beat without Plaxico Burress. The D-Line is still as deep and talented as any in the NFL, and if Eli Manning can play like he did in week 2 the offense will be one of the most balanced in the NFL.
3. New Orleans Saints
As we knew heading into the season, the offense is extremely explosive. Drew Brees nearly broke the single season passing record last season, and he might have another crack at it this year. he already has 9 TD passes through 2 games. The Saints are averaging a whopping 46.5 PPG, and obliterated a pretty good Eagles defense on Sunday. If the Saints D can hold u, they could be Super Bowl contenders.
4. Minnesota Vikings
They have looked good but not great through 2 games. They've struggled out of the gate against both Cleveland and Detroit, trailing by three at halftime each game. But neither was in doubt as the second half closed. Adrian Peterson is looking like an all-time great RB with runs like this, and the defense is playing attacking football.
5. New York JetsThe Jets have been one of the surprise teams of the NFL, going 2-0 while opening up against potential playoff teams in Houston and New England. If you were into NFL betting you probably could have made a lot of money betting that through 2 games the Jets would be allowing 8.0 PPG and no defensive touchdowns allowed (the only TD scored against them was on special teams. Matt Sanchez looks to be carrying on the recent trend of successful, young NFL quarterbacks.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jeff Reed? After making the game-winner in OT the week before, he missed two 4th quarter FGs which could have potentially won the game for Pittsburgh in the Windy City. Instead, he missed wide left on both, and the Steelers lost to drop to 1-1. They have a lot of concerns about the running game and offensive line, but this defense is still pretty special, especially when Troy Polamalu gets back. Obviously we have not heard the last from the defending champions.
7. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts seem to be flying a little more under the radar than usual, which is a little strange. There are a little more question marks at receiver, but Peyton Manning is still the quarterback. If they can get the tandem of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown up and running effectively, the offense will again be one of the best in the NFL.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan has shown that there will be no sophomore slump, as he's establishing himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the game already. The Falcons are 2-0 and looking every bit the playoff team they were a season ago. The revamped defense is looking much improved, turning in good performances against Miami and Carolina, two teams that were very good a season ago.
9. New England Patriots
It is way too soon to panic for a franchise that employs both Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck, but something is not quite right for the Pats. They have no running game, Brady is throwing all day without a ton of success (100 throws in two games), the defense is not pressuring the QB, and they could very easily be 0-2 right now. At the very least, the AFC East will be more of a race than perhaps some people expected heading into the season.
10. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are one of 9 undefeated teams after week 2 (not sure a lot of sports betting was done for that!), which merits inclusion in the top 10, even though I'm not sure they're really better than teams like the Cowboys, Packers, or Bears. At the very least, Frank Gore showed that Adrian Peterson will at least have a challenger in the rushing title race. The 49ers and Vikings play in Week 3's only matchup of undefeated teams.
What are your thoughts? What order would you change?
Adrian Peterson TD Run vs. Cleveland Browns
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Just in case you haven't seen this spectacular run from the best RB in the NFL.
AFC North Predictions
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
As the division with the reigning Super Bowl champion, the AFC North automatically earns respect. In 2008, the Pittsburgh Steelers, led by Mike Tomlin, were crowned as Super Bowl champiopions after beating the Arizona Cardinals. They are joined in the division by the always tough Baltimore Ravens and two teams that struggled in 2008, the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will once again be the favorite, as they return their key pieces from a 12-4. Their bread and butter is defense, as Mike Tomlin is a defensive coach at heart and has the top shelf talent with guys like James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. They just might be the best defensive team in the NFL. The offense is led by Ben Roethlisberger, owner of two Super Bowl rings. He doesn't always put up huge numbers, but he makes plays when they need to be made, which is what happened in the Super Bowl last season. The running game should get better with a healthy Rashard Mendenhall. Look for the Steelers to be back in the AFC race.
The Baltimore Ravens will challenge them once again. They, like the Steelers, are built on the backs of their defense. They're led by Ray Lewis, one of the best middle linebackers to ever play in the NFL. Flanked by guys like Terrell Suggs, the defense is ferocious and one of the best in the game. The offense is young at key positions, but talented. Both Joe Flacco and Ray Rice started last season as rookies, and both should be even better with the experience. Their growth will determine how far this team will go.
The Cincinnati Bengals look like the third best team, as they have to hope Carson Palmer will remain healthy. He is one of the most talented QBs in the NFL but has struggled with injuries. He should headline a solid offense, also featuring Chad Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles. The defense was very bad last season, and Marvin Lewis will hope some new faces can turn it around. If they do, the Bengals have a chance of reaching .500.
The Cleveland Browns had high hopes heading into last season, but stumbled out of the gate and never recovered. With a QB controversy still going on (looks like Brady Quinn will get the job, but that is not certain), new coach Eric Mangini will look to provide some stability. They have some big names on the offense, lime Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis, but they didn't get much production at all out of them last season. .500 would be a major success for Mangini.
What are your thoughts?
The Pittsburgh Steelers will once again be the favorite, as they return their key pieces from a 12-4. Their bread and butter is defense, as Mike Tomlin is a defensive coach at heart and has the top shelf talent with guys like James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. They just might be the best defensive team in the NFL. The offense is led by Ben Roethlisberger, owner of two Super Bowl rings. He doesn't always put up huge numbers, but he makes plays when they need to be made, which is what happened in the Super Bowl last season. The running game should get better with a healthy Rashard Mendenhall. Look for the Steelers to be back in the AFC race.
The Baltimore Ravens will challenge them once again. They, like the Steelers, are built on the backs of their defense. They're led by Ray Lewis, one of the best middle linebackers to ever play in the NFL. Flanked by guys like Terrell Suggs, the defense is ferocious and one of the best in the game. The offense is young at key positions, but talented. Both Joe Flacco and Ray Rice started last season as rookies, and both should be even better with the experience. Their growth will determine how far this team will go.
The Cincinnati Bengals look like the third best team, as they have to hope Carson Palmer will remain healthy. He is one of the most talented QBs in the NFL but has struggled with injuries. He should headline a solid offense, also featuring Chad Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles. The defense was very bad last season, and Marvin Lewis will hope some new faces can turn it around. If they do, the Bengals have a chance of reaching .500.
The Cleveland Browns had high hopes heading into last season, but stumbled out of the gate and never recovered. With a QB controversy still going on (looks like Brady Quinn will get the job, but that is not certain), new coach Eric Mangini will look to provide some stability. They have some big names on the offense, lime Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis, but they didn't get much production at all out of them last season. .500 would be a major success for Mangini.
What are your thoughts?
NFC West Predictions
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Last season, the NFC Champion unexpectedly came out of the West division. Even more unexpectedly, that team was the Arizona Cardinals, long one of the laughingstocks of the NFL. Led by Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin, the offense was as explosive as any in the NFL, and the passing game could move the ball throughout the field.
The Arizona Cardinals should again challenge for the division crown. The passing game will be excellent again (as long as Warner can stay healthy), and the addition of Beanie Wells in the backfield could add a spark to an already potent offense. Defensively there are still questions. The defense was just good enough last year, but they will need to get a lot better if they are going to have a chance at making it back to the Super Bowl.
The Seattle Seahawks also figure to challenge for the division crown, provided they can stay healthy. They had a lot of problems with injuries last year, and it basically doomed their season from the beginning. The health starts with Matt Hasselbeck, who has looked very good so far. If he is as good as advertised, the offense will flourish. The defense will also benefit from better health and the addition of rookie Aaron Curry, as they look to make it back to the top of the NFC West.
Next, the San Francisco 49ers will look to do some things under Mike Singletary. In his first full year of coaching, he will try to instill a grind it out mentality to the team, and they will likely feed Frank Gore early and often. If he can stay healthy and productive, the 49ers will have a chance to be a .500 ballclub. It is too soon to expect them to challenge for any division titles, but it appears they could be back on the right track after some off years under Mike Nolan.
Last, there is the St. Louis Rams, who should be improved after an abysmal 2008. New coach Steve Spagnulo is getting a tougher mentality in there which should benefit the team. Much like the 49ers, the Rams will look to win on the ground, and they should get the ball to Stephen Jackson a lot. With youth along the O-Line, they will look to build in the trenches.
The NFC West will not be a power division, but there is a lot of youth and teams on the rise. Look for the Seahawks and Cardinals to battle it out for division supremacy, with the Niners and Rams fighting for third.
The Arizona Cardinals should again challenge for the division crown. The passing game will be excellent again (as long as Warner can stay healthy), and the addition of Beanie Wells in the backfield could add a spark to an already potent offense. Defensively there are still questions. The defense was just good enough last year, but they will need to get a lot better if they are going to have a chance at making it back to the Super Bowl.
The Seattle Seahawks also figure to challenge for the division crown, provided they can stay healthy. They had a lot of problems with injuries last year, and it basically doomed their season from the beginning. The health starts with Matt Hasselbeck, who has looked very good so far. If he is as good as advertised, the offense will flourish. The defense will also benefit from better health and the addition of rookie Aaron Curry, as they look to make it back to the top of the NFC West.
Next, the San Francisco 49ers will look to do some things under Mike Singletary. In his first full year of coaching, he will try to instill a grind it out mentality to the team, and they will likely feed Frank Gore early and often. If he can stay healthy and productive, the 49ers will have a chance to be a .500 ballclub. It is too soon to expect them to challenge for any division titles, but it appears they could be back on the right track after some off years under Mike Nolan.
Last, there is the St. Louis Rams, who should be improved after an abysmal 2008. New coach Steve Spagnulo is getting a tougher mentality in there which should benefit the team. Much like the 49ers, the Rams will look to win on the ground, and they should get the ball to Stephen Jackson a lot. With youth along the O-Line, they will look to build in the trenches.
The NFC West will not be a power division, but there is a lot of youth and teams on the rise. Look for the Seahawks and Cardinals to battle it out for division supremacy, with the Niners and Rams fighting for third.
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