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Showing posts with label Picks Against the Spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Picks Against the Spread. Show all posts

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Pittsburgh (-3) over Miami
I think Pittsburgh is the best team in the NFL, especially with Ben Roethlisberger back, making their offense balanced again. Miami has some nice wins this season, but I'm not sure Chad Henne is going to be very effective against this defense. I like Pittsburgh to win a low-scoring game in Miami, with Roethlisberger making the difference.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over Atlanta
Atlanta looked like it might have a chance to be the class of the NFC, and then they got beat easily by Philly. Cincy started off well before tailing off, but they know they need a win to try and salvage their season. Look for a good gameplan from Mike Zimmer, and just enough plays out of the Cincy offense to pull off an upset.

St. Louis (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
After last week's win over the Chargers, I believe in the Rams in the NFC West. The defensive front is getting after people just like Spagnulo's Giants' teams used to do. The offense, thanks to Sam Bradford, is showing more signs of life than they have in years. Something is brewing in St. Louis, and I think it will be enough to beat the Bucs.

San Francisco (-3) over Carolina
2-5 an the Niners will start to believe. The musical chairs of Carolina quarterback goes back to Matt Moore. Won't make a difference for this punchless offense, as teams will just load the box. Carolina's receivers aren't good enough to beat anyone.

Washington (+3) over Chicago
The Bears correction continues, as the Redskins are showing signs of being solid. Donovan McNabb is playing better than Jay Cutler right now, which is why I will take the Skins. The Bears need to get Matt Forte the ball in the running game, because teams will be going after Cutler with the way the offensive line has performed this season.

New Orleans (-13.5) over Cleveland
The Saints appear to have some of their mojo back, particularly if they can continue a strong rushing attack. Colt McCoy looked surprisingly good in his first game starting in his career, but there is not enough firepower in Cleveland to compete with the Saints.

Buffalo (+13) over Baltimore
Baltimore should win the game easily, but I think the Bills will be able to make the final score respectable. Fred Jackson should get more touches after the trade of Marshawn Lynch, and that could be a good thing. It will also be interesting to see if they have anything new for CJ Spiller. Ryan Fitzgerald is not anyone's answer to a long-term solution at QB, but he is serviceable, which is more than you could say about Trent Edwards.

Philadelphia (+2.5) over Tennessee
I believe in Kevin Kolb. He looked great against Atlanta, and he appears to have the timing of the offense down. The only thing that concerns me is that Desean Jackson will be out of the game, which is a big blow to the offense. Still, I have more faith in Philly's run game than Tennessee's pass game, which is why I will take the Eagles here.

Seattle (-5.5) over Arizona
Nice win by Seattle last week, showing that they could win a road game, which was in question for me before that game. At home, I think they will overwhelm Arizona, who is better with Max Hall than they were with Derek Anderson (or Matt Leinart), but not good enough to be a serious contender.

Denver (-7) over Oakland
The Broncos have played well, just are struggling to get over the hump. The Raiders, meanwhile, looked awful last week, and Kyle Boller could be getting the start this week. I think Denver's offense is a lot more explosive than the Raiders, even with the lack of a running game.

New England (+3) over San Diego
New England looks like the Patriots of old... a bunch of scrappy guys just going out there and playing. I can't put my finger on what is different after essentially trading Randy Moss for Deion Branch, but SOMETHING is. And it's clear that as great as Moss is, things were not working out this season. The Patriots look like a force the rest of the way to me.

Minnesota (+3) over Green Bay
The game that is full of storylines. Favre comes back to Lambeau again, and this time the Packers are reeling. The Packers know that if they lose this game, the Vikings have all of the momentum in the division. Still, I like the Vikings D (which has quietly been excellent) to get after Aaron Rodgers like they did last year, and for Favre to hit Moss on a deep ball that will make the difference.

Dallas (-3) over New York
The NFC East seems to always have these types of games... one team is struggling, the other team is playing well... but talent-wise, they are close to even, and there is one team that really needs the game more than the other team. Dallas will be in desperation mode. At home in Big D, I'll take Dallas to prolong the death of their season for another week.

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2009: Week 3

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Back for the always challenging picking against the spread! When I used to do these in the past, my goal was always .500... so I will stick with that as a goal. Let's just say there is a reason I don't gamble! But picking against the spread is more fun and challenging than picking straight up.

I just got my odds from here, taking the most common line at the time if there are any discrepancies between all of them.

Titans (+3) over Jets
Perhaps no team has been more impressive over 2 weeks than the Jets (#5 in my power rankings), but I think this will be a case of one team desperately needing a win, and the other wanting a win. The Titans, at 0-2, need a win. They have playoff and Super Bowl aspirations, and they are too good to fall to 0-3 and let them die.

Packers (-6.5) over Rams
The Rams are averaging 3.5 PPG over the first two weeks. Nope, that is not a misprint.

Lions (+6.5) over Redskins
A lot of people are saying this is the week the streak ends (including Peter King, though he said that last week too)... I'm not sold, but I think it will be an ugly game. I like the Redskins to win a game that feels like a loss... sorta like last week. Something like 16-13 with a late FG.

Chiefs (+8.5) over Eagles
Without Donovan McNabb, I like the Eagles to struggle for this victory. The defense got shredded last week by the Saints. And while no one will mistake this Chiefs offense for the Saints offense, I think Todd Haley will be able to exploit some things to keep the game at least close.

Patriots (-4) over Falcons
Another desperation game... not that the Patriots are done if they fall to 1-2, but they just need to get some of their mojo back. This would be a good place to start by beating a good Falcons team. Tony Gonzalez has added another dimension to the Falcons offense. New England needs to get better pressure on the QB or else Matt Ryan will pick them apart. I like Bill Belicheck to get it done.

Texans (-3.5) over Jaguars
Jack Del Rio, start updating your resume.

Vikings (-6.5) over 49ers
I know Frank Gore is real good, and the Niners have looked solid going 2-0. But they beat a sleepwalking Cardinals team and a Seahawks team that didn't have Matt Hasselbeck for much of the game. Let's not get too crazy yet. The Vikings need to start getting off to quicker starts, but I still like them by two touchdowns.

Ravens (-13) over Browns
Yep, the Ravens offense is pretty stinkin' good this year too. The Browns lost to Denver by 21 last week... I like the Ravens to do the same thing to them.

Giants (-6.5) over Bucs
The Bucs defenders keep dropping, and the passing game can't get much consistency. Cadillac is a great story, but the Bucs are just not a good football team right now. Meanwhile, the Giants passing game is finding its groove, which should only open things up more for the running game.

Saints (-6) over Bills
Until the Saints prove me wrong, I will assume nobody can stop them. Buffalo has been fairly impressive this year and they look like they could challenge for a playoff spot if things break right. But they still aren't getting TO very involved, and you have to think he won't like that for too much longer. The Saints defense has just been good enough to think the Saints could be contenders this year, and I like that trend to continue against Buffalo.

Bears (-2) over Seahawks
If Matt Hasselbeck plays, he won't be anywhere near 100%. That does not bode well for a very mediocre Seahawks team. Plus, the defense didn't look so good either giving up TD runs of 79 and 80 yards against Frank Gore. Look for Forte to finally get on track running the football this week.

Bengals (+4) over Steelers
I'm not sure the Bengals have enough to upset Pittsburgh, but I think they keep it real close. Pittsburgh has not looked very dominant through 2 games, while the Bengals looked surprisingly solid winning at Lambeau last week. Look for them to try to get Cedric Benson involved again, which will set them up to make just enough plays in the passing game to keep this a tight ballgame.

Dolphins (+6) over Chargers
I am guessing the Dolphins will try a similar strategy that they tried against the Colts... with about the same result.

Raiders (+1.5) over Broncos
Not that JaMarcus Russell and his 35% completion rate (seriously... 35%... no, seriously) is that impressive, I think the Raiders are a better overall team than the Broncos. With the game being played at Oakland, I like them to take a squeaker against their bitter rivals from Denver.

Colts (+2.5) over Cardinals
I know Arizona is at home and played well last week... but the Cardinals are favored? I was a bit surprised, I must admit. I simply think the Colts are a much better team than the Cardinals. They got gouged in the running game last week against Miami, but Arizona is not exactly a team that is going to exploit that weakness.

Panthers (+8.5) over Cowboys
For some reason, the Panthers just bore me. I don't know what it is about them, but I am just not interested at all in them. I think something about Jake Delhomme is just so unenticing to me, that even with the dynamic running backs they have (not to mention Steve Smith), I just don't care to ever see them play. What that has to do with me picking them to cover, I don't know.

What are your thoughts? Which picks do you disagree with?

Giants/Redskins Pick

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Not sure if I'll have time to do my picks against the spread this year, but I'll try. And with the season opener tonight, I'll give my pick here for the defending champion Giants taking on the Washington Redskins.

I'll take the Redskins (+4.5).

Of course, if you'll remember how my picks last year went (when I was under .500), you definitely won't want to put any stock into the picks. But it's fun to try.

I like Jason Campbell to take another step forward for the Skins this year, helping lead the Skins. If Clinton Portis can stay healthy again, he's a top 10 back. Plus, I'm not sold on the Giants this year... obviously Eli has taken a step forward, but can he do it on a consistent basis? Will Plaxico be focused every week after the Super Bowl win? Can Brandon Jacobs stay healthy? Can the defense play as well as they did at the end of last year? Lots of questions.

Giants 20, Redskins 17.

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 17

Thursday, December 27, 2007

The final week of the season! Unfortunately, I'll basically need to run the table to reach .500. Hmmm... maybe next year. Anyway, the week 17 picks:

Patriots (-13.5) over Giants'

Rams (+6) over Cardinals

Falcons (-1) over Seahawks

Panthers (-3) over Bucs

Bengals (-3) over Dolphins

Bengals (-10) over 49ers

Lions (+4) over Packers

Jaguars (+6.5) over Texans

Vikings (-3) over Broncos

Saints (-2) over Bears

Chiefs (+6.5) over Jets

Eagles (-7.5) over Bills

Steelers (-3.5) over Ravens

Chargers (-8.5) over Raiders

Colts (+6) over Titans

Redskins (-9) over Cowboys

Last Week: 6-9
Season: 101-111-10

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 16

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Only 2 more weeks left as we continue on with the drive to .500!

Panthers (+10.5) over Cowboys

Cardinals (-10) over Falcons

Browns (-2.5) over Bengals

Chiefs (+4.5) over Lions

Bears (+8.5) over Packers

Texans (+7) over Colts

Jaguars (-13) over Raiders

Vikings (-6.5) over Redskins

Patriots (-22) over Dolphins

Eagles (+3) over Saints

Bills (+2.5) over Giants

Ravens (+10.5) over Seahawks

Bucs (-5.5) over 49ers

Jets (+8.5) over Titans

Chargers (-8.5) over Broncos

Last Week: 5-9
Season: 95-102-10

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 15

Thursday, December 13, 2007

I realize I missed Thursday's game... finals have been the death of me (well, not quite, but you know what I mean) this week. Anyway, my picks as we are nearing the end of my drive to .500!

Bengals (-8) over 49ers

Ravens (-3.5) over Dolphins

Eagles (+10.5) over Cowboys

Packers (-9.5) over Rams

Colts (-10.5) over Raiders

Patriots (-23) over Jets

Cardinals (-3.5) over Saints

Redskins (+4.5) over Giants

Jaguars (+3.5) over Steelers

Lions (+10) over Chargers

Seahawks (-7.5) over Panthers

Falcons (+13.5) over Bucs

Titans (-4) over Chiefs

Vikings (-10) over Bears

Last Week: 9-6
Overall: 90-93-10

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 14

Thursday, December 6, 2007

I missed the Bears/Redskins game, but here are the rest of the week 14 picks as I continue my drive for .500!

Bills (-7) over Dolphins

Rams (+6.5) over Bengals

Browns (-3) over Jets

Cowboys (-10.5) over Lions

Chiefs (+6.5) over Broncos

Raiders (+10.5) over Packers

Colts (-9) over Ravens

Jaguars (-10.5) over Panthers

Vikings (-8.5) over 49ers

Patriots (-10.5) over Steelers

Giants (+3) over Eagles

Cardinals (+7) over Seahawks

Bucs (-3) over Texans

Chargers (PK) over Titans

Saints (-4) over Falcons

Last Week: 6-9
Season: 81-87-10

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 13

Friday, November 30, 2007

This week did not get off to a good start (as I picked the Packers), but I will attempt to redeem myself as I continue my drive for .500.

Browns (PK) over Cardinals

Panthers (-3) over 49ers

Broncos (-3.5) over Raiders

Jaguars (+6.5) over Colts

Jets (+1) over Dolphins

Vikings (-4) over Lions

Bucs (+3.5) over Saints

Bears (+1.5) over Giants

Eagles (-3) over Seahawks

Bengals (+7) over Steelers

Chargers (-6) over Chiefs

Falcons (+3) over Rams

Texans (+3.5) over Titans

Redskins (-5.5) over Bills

Patriots (-20) over Ravens

This Week: 0-1
Season: 75-78-10

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Packers @ Cowboys

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Last week I picked the Thanksgiving games and then in the hoopla of the holiday season forgot to pick the rest... so yeah. Anyway.

At the start of the year I was not sold on the Packers as legitimate contenders. The reasons were obvious... they had no running game, and I had watched Brett Favre play the past 2-3 years, when he was just as likely to make a game-changing mistake as he was to making a big play. Plus, the Packers are my least favorite team in the world. It's true.

So when they got off to the quick start, I was just assuming that they would quickly fall back down to Earth. But then a funny thing happened... they kept winning. Now they're 10-1 and facing the Cowboys in the 2nd biggest game of the year (not that I will actually, you know, get to see it).

The Cowboys are favored by 7, and maybe for good reason. They're at home, and they've had the most explosive offense in the NFC so far this year.

But I'm going to take the Packers, not only to cover, but to win this game outright. Just a feeling. Their running game is getting better and better, the defense is fantastic (great corners, good pass rush, fast LBs). Plus, the passing game is firing on all cylinders right now. Favre is avoiding the big mistakes, the receivers are making plays after the catch.

So with that said, the Packers are my pick in this game. Hopefully it lives up to the hype.

Last Week: 2-1
Season: 75-77-10

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Thanksgiving

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

3 games on Turkey Day... I'll make my picks for those, and pick the rest later in the week.

Jets (+14) over Cowboys
Jets have been playing a little better the last couple of weeks with Kellen Clemens, and I'm not sure they're quite as bad as their 2-8 record indicates. I think Leon Washington makes a couple big plays and allows the Jets to keep it close. Obviously I still like the Cowboys to win, but I think the Jets can keep it semi-respectable.

Packers (-3.5) over Lions
Lost in the Brett Favre hoopla is the fact that the Packers defense is really good. Kitna tends to struggle and make some bad decisions when there is pressure on him, and I think that will be the case in this game. Plus, the Lions secondary is nothing to write home about... I think Favre and the passing game will go wild against the Lions.

Colts (-11.5) over Falcons
The Colts have to be better than they showed the last 2 weeks, right? Peyton Manning has been really bad, which is not a trend I expect to continue.

Last Week: 7-7-2
Season: 73-76-10

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